Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-12 1.575037 2.075292 2.751666 3.757252 5.257781 7.488723 1.120974e+01
2025-01-19 0.952478 1.409048 2.127891 3.407357 5.784639 10.388347 2.115337e+01
2025-01-26 0.674324 1.098916 1.861300 3.462526 7.160956 16.721983 5.086783e+01
2025-02-02 0.526511 0.938402 1.776761 3.859145 9.965495 32.456360 1.824176e+02
2025-02-09 0.429876 0.832124 1.754477 4.468511 14.819739 74.449993 1.211610e+03
2025-02-16 0.340601 0.703955 1.622184 4.749591 20.030281 164.447375 1.766272e+04
2025-02-23 0.262815 0.570198 1.406344 4.604725 23.938276 326.193457 2.905284e+06
2025-03-02 0.203180 0.457708 1.191480 4.278155 26.763754 619.699127 NaN
2025-03-09 0.171491 0.404857 1.129063 4.582428 37.397073 2247.376089 NaN
2025-03-16 0.145670 0.358259 1.062686 4.836453 51.816201 12145.268368 NaN
2025-03-23 0.127179 0.325834 1.029526 5.295415 78.160010 284425.465318 NaN
2025-03-30 0.111580 0.296473 0.992286 5.733704 118.717956 NaN NaN
2025-04-06 0.092925 0.252729 0.878226 5.488769 145.947865 NaN NaN
2025-04-13 0.076844 0.212399 0.757792 5.010837 161.510942 NaN NaN
2025-04-20 0.067156 0.190577 0.710173 5.166734 237.203791 NaN NaN
2025-04-27 0.061212 0.179754 0.709527 5.886559 470.887963 NaN NaN
2025-05-04 0.056786 0.172886 0.726173 6.989943 1191.629332 NaN NaN
2025-05-11 0.051276 0.160057 0.702380 7.541519 2534.104256 NaN NaN
2025-05-18 0.045116 0.142764 0.641881 7.334848 3868.274679 NaN NaN
2025-05-25 0.039388 0.125634 0.572958 6.794769 4820.920128 NaN NaN
2025-06-01 0.036246 0.118131 0.560134 7.370094 13914.769572 NaN NaN
2025-06-08 0.033326 0.110678 0.543198 7.859203 48164.697645 NaN NaN
2025-06-15 0.031099 0.105514 0.538836 8.729590 434193.010749 NaN NaN